Republicans running for governor of Louisiana say the state is awash in lawlessness, a problem that calls for police to start acting more like “the badasses on the streets,” in the words of candidate John Schroder.
Schroder, who is State Treasurer, and three other GOP gubernatorial hopefuls — State Sen. Sharon Hewitt, Attorney General Jeff Landry and State Rep. Richard Nelson — agree that crime is one of the state’s core problems. That message comes on the heels of a violent crime surge that has gripped New Orleans, Baton Rouge and Lafayette. Rural areas have suffered, too.
Yet reality is more nuanced than campaign comments suggest.
Though violence surged following the onset of COVID-19, FBI data show overall crime has steadily trended downward in Louisiana over the past decade. Individual cities have recently reported small wins: Baton Rouge logged a drop in murders last year for the first time since 2019. Violent and overall crime dropped in 2021 in Shreveport, the state’s third-largest city, data show.
What campaign messaging portends for policy under a possible GOP governor is an open question. But chief on the minds of policymakers and advocates is the fate of Louisiana’s 2017 criminal justice reforms — a key accomplishment of Democrat John Bel Edwards, whose term in the governor’s mansion expires next year.
Supported by an unlikely bipartisan coalition of legislators and law enforcement officials, the reforms brought sweeping changes to Louisiana’s justice system. The package of 10 bills shrank the prison population by nearly 25% by releasing mostly people convicted of nonviolent crimes. And fewer people were rearrested after being released from prison in the years since the laws passed, a Pew Trusts report found.
If a GOP candidate wins the governorship, he or she will enjoy strong Republican majorities in both chambers of the state legislature as well as the power to appoint agency leaders — translating to instant sway over criminal justice policy and other lawmaking.
“I think the next governor holds Louisiana’s future when it comes to addressing crime,” said Scott Peyton, Louisiana and Mississippi state director for Right on Crime, a conservative group that supported the 2017 reforms. “We can take the path of following the research and the evidence and what is working in other conservative states. Or we can go the politically easier path of the rhetoric behind (pre-2017 policies) that have not made us any safer.”
A common theme: Tough-on-crime rhetoric
Hewitt, Landry, Nelson and Schroder answered questions about crime at a forum last week convened by the Louisiana Association of Business and Industry. Crime in Louisiana is “skyrocketing,” Hewitt said then. Landry blamed crime for an exodus of young people out of the state. The cities of Shreveport, Baton Rouge and New Orleans are “overwhelmed” by crime, Nelson said.
In reality, Baton Rouge homicides and non-fatal shootings have dropped in recent months, though New Orleans continues to grapple with surging killings. In Shreveport, murder and overall crime alike hit their lowest levels in over 40 years in 2021, the last year for which city data is available. Lafayette, meanwhile, continues to grapple with rising homicides.
Schroder said innocent people are “imprisoned in their own homes” due to crime and urged harsher sentences for violent and repeat offenders.
A recent report from the right-leaning Pelican Institute found that while violent crime rose amid COVID-19, property crime statewide has dropped by 30% over the last 20 years. Louisiana regularly logs the nation’s highest murder rate, but the state’s violent crime surge was less pronounced than in other Southern states like Georgia and Arkansas.
The report found that the 2017 reforms, which sought mostly to soften sentences for non-violent crimes, did not correlate to increased violent crime discussed frequently in political campaigns.
Republican candidates nationwide have seized on crime to whip votes, sometimes issuing statements of questionable veracity and blaming justice reform for rising crime rates. The messaging caters to constituent fears that are rooted in true problems, said Ja’Ron Smith, a criminal justice reform advisor to former President Donald Trump.
Where campaigns fall short, Smith said, is communicating visions for policy and solutions.
“I think it’s a real thing,” Smith said. “The problem is the messaging around solutions right now is politicized.”
What does rhetoric mean for policy?
Justice reform advocates are paying particular attention to that rhetoric in the race for Louisiana governor. Andrew Hundley, head of the Louisiana Parole Project, said his group is trying to educate people about the reforms’ focus on people with non-violent convictions, like drug crimes or thefts.
“What we’re seeing is it’s really easy for some politicians to say, ‘We embarked on justice reforms, and the correlation is crime went up, so justice reform is bad,’” Hundley said. “But no one’s showing the data.”
Landry has repeatedly bashed the 2017 reforms since at least the year after they passed, when he and U.S. Sen. John Kennedy penned an op-ed calling them “a disaster.” That column accused the reforms of “opening the prison gates” for too many people who Landry and Kennedy argued should remain locked up.
Asked if they hope to roll back the 2017 reforms, candidates gave varied replies. Landry said in a statement that he hopes to shepherd “true criminal justice reform that works to lower recidivism, creates truth in sentencing, strengthens rights to victims, and ensures that justice is served to all.”
As governor, Schroder said he will “bring back law and order.”
“Violent criminals and repeat offenders belong in jail,” he said in a statement, adding that he hopes to work with the Legislature on “common-sense, data-driven programs that benefit the public.”
Some conservative candidates’ concerns about crime don’t translate into opposition to the 2017 reforms. Hewitt, a Slidell Republican, said in an interview that the 2017 changes do not correlate to increased violent crime and thus should not be blamed for that trend.
“The issues we’re having right now are with violent offenders,” she said. “So I don’t know that I could holistically say that I’m going to roll all that back. Is it fair to look at it and tweak it a little bit? Maybe.”
Hunter Lundy, an independent, said he would not seek to roll back reforms. Nor would Nelson, who said he would instead push for laws that create more transparency around taxpayer funding of the justice system.
Democrat Shawn Wilson, Edwards’ longtime transportation chief, called the reforms “historic” and said he worries that going back to overzealous sentencing would increase recidivism.
Former LABI director Stephen Waguespack did not return a message seeking comment on the future of criminal justice reform.
Edwards’ staff said it’s too early to tell what the race means for the laws.
“If any of the candidates say they want to roll back these bipartisan reforms, they’ll have to explain to community organizations like United Way, Goodwill, Catholic Charities, and Faith House why they’ll be losing crucial funding to prevent crime and help victims of crimes like domestic violence,” Edwards spokesperson Eric Holl said.
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