Each day, one of our experts at Bet.NOLA.com will offer up a best bet (or two or three) that mobile sportsbooks in Louisiana are offering. It might be a traditional spread bet, a player prop or one of the various odds boosts that books offer.
A reminder for those who haven’t signed up yet: New users can get a risk-free bet at Caesars Sportsbook, meaning that if your first bet loses, you get a bonus bet for the same amount up to $1,250. New users also get 1,000 Caesars Rewards points to redeem for hotel or casino credit.
Here are our best bets for Saturday, May 20:
TOP PLAY
The play: NBA Western Conference Finals Game 3, Lakers -5½ over Nuggets
The odds/bet: -110 ($33 to win $30)
The book: Caesars Sportsbook
Time/TV: 7:30 p.m. (ABC)
Our take: Just as we did Friday night, we’ll play the narrative game that works so well in the NBA playoffs. The Nuggets survived their home games and take a 2-0 series lead to Los Angeles, where the Lakers will be easily the more desperate team.
More desperate = more aggressive, and the Lakers tend to draw a lot of fouls with their style of play anyway (insert your own flopping joke here, but it’s also just the way they force the ball in the paint instead of settling for jump shots). Combine that with perhaps a friendly whistle and L.A. should have a big edge in halving Denver’s series lead. On the other side, the Nuggets will have trouble making as many shots as they did at home just by the law of averages.
There’s a reason that L.A. was a 5-to-6-point underdog on the road and is suddenly a 5½-point favorite at home. This one is easy to see coming.
PREAKNESS PICK
The play: Preakness Stakes, National Treasure to place (first or second)
The odds/bet: Odds will vary until post time ($10)
The book: Caesars Racebook
Time/TV: Post time 6:01 p.m. (NBC)
Our take: Kentucky Derby winner Mage is the heavy favorite, moving better than even money after second choice First Mission was scratched Friday morning. But how many times have you seen a longer shot win the Derby (Mage was 15/1) and then go into the Preakness with some hype, only to fall back in the pack?
In gallops, National Treasure, rested after not running the Derby and from Bob Baffert’s stable. Say what you will about Baffert (many have), but he tends to have contenders. National Treasure pays 4/1 to win as of Saturday morning, and we’re not against that route, but we’ll play it safe and choose him to win or place at slightly lower odds.
HOW WE’VE FARED
NBA playoffs: Celtics -8½ over Heat (LOST $34.50)
NBA playoffs: Jimmy Butler UNDER 28½ points (WON $10)
MLB: Braves money line over Mariners (WON $10)
Friday’s profit/loss: -$14.50 (2-1)
Total for the week: +$70 (7-2, 1 pending)
Total for May: +$185.10 (22-15, 1 pending)
Total for 2023: -$274.10 (110-120, 1 pending)
NOTE: If a line or odds are minus, it considers the juice one must lay to place the bet. Ex: Team A is -160 on the money line, one would have to bet $160 to win $100 (or $16 to win $10). OR Team B is a 5-point favorite at -110, one would have to bet $110 to win $100 (or $11 to win $10.)
Conversely, on positive lines, if Team C is +140 on the money line, $100 would bring in $140 (or $10 to win $14).
Related:
NBA playoffs, Lakers-Nuggets Game 2; LeBron player prop: Best Bets for Thursday (May 18)
WATCH: Picking winners in Preakness, NBA playoffs on ‘Bayou Bets’
NBA playoffs, Lakers-Warriors Game 5; Byron Nelson PGA pick: Best Bets for Wednesday (May 10)
Grizzlies-Lakers NBA Playoffs spread play, plus an MLB run total: Best bets (April 24)
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