Few LSU baseball standouts have gone on to have the MLB success of Alex Bregman, as he’s developed into an All-Star third baseman for the Houston Astros.
Bregman was still a quality starter last season, but his play dropped off slightly from the All-Star level he performed at in 2018 and 2019, so he’ll be looking to return to that high level of play that had him in the MVP conversation.
Bregman is only 28 years old, which is normally a prime age for a hitter, making the former LSU star a potential value play as far as the 2023 MLB futures betting market.
We’ll be breaking down Bregman’s odds to win AL MVP, lead MLB in RBIs, runs scored and home runs to see if there’s a bet or two worth placing on him before the 2023 MLB season.
ALEX BREGMAN 2023 FUTURES
Odds from Caesars Sportsbook, official odds partner of bet.NOLA.com.
To win the AL MVP: +4500
Bregman somehow received an MVP vote last season despite a subpar season for his standards, but there could be value in 2023 since he’s shown the ability to put up MVP-caliber numbers.
Bregman finished fifth in the AL MVP race with a career year in 2018 and followed that up with an even stronger 2019 season in which he finished second in the voting behind Angels superstar Mike Trout.
The past three seasons haven’t gone as smoothly though, as Bregman failed to get much going in the shortened 2020 season, and he followed that up with injury plagued 2021 and a slightly disappointing 2022.
While it’s been over three years now since Bregman produced MVP-like numbers, the oddsmakers have reduced his odds to win the 2023 award from +3500 earlier in the offseason to +4500, and that new price feels much more intriguing.
Bregman now has the 17th-best odds to win MVP, ranking behind the likes of Byron Buxton and Wander Franco, which seems a tad disrespectful considering that Bregman is in his prime and is an above average defender at third base.
The hitting numbers will have to improve substantially in order for Bregman to be a serious MVP contender, but he’s at the perfect age to do so and is batting in the heart of an Astros lineup that’s more loaded than ever.
To lead MLB in RBIs: +3300
Bregman still managed to record 93 RBIs last season despite only 23 home runs, which goes to show that he’s in position to pile up strong numbers even if he’s not hitting 40-plus bombs.
Bregman’s strength as a hitter is making contact, as he led MLB in doubles in 2018 with 103 RBIs to go with it and followed that up with a career-high 112 RBIs in 2019 when he shifted mainly to hitting third in the batting order.
Bregman is locked into the No. 3 spot for the stacked Astros lineup, giving him plenty of chances to rack up RBIs to where he could offer value at 33-to-1 to lead the league.
To lead MLB in runs scored: +4000
While Bregman was an RBI machine during his peak seasons, he was even better at scoring runs having scored 102 in 2018 followed by a career-high 122 in 2019.
Hitting third isn’t quite as ideal from a runs scored perspective as hitting first or second, but it’s not a bad spot for Bregman considering elite slugger Yordan Alvarez is set to bat right behind him.
Even though it’s tough to imagine Bregman being able to outscore elite leadoff hitters such as Trea Turner, 40-to-1 might be slightly better value than his price to lead in RBIs.
To lead MLB in home runs: +30000
Bregman simply doesn’t have enough power to be a serious threat to lead the league in home runs as evidenced by his ridiculously long 300-to-1 odds.
While Bregman launched a career-high 41 homers in 2019, he’s yet to come anywhere close to that and likely won’t challenge the likes of Aaron Judge and Mike Trout for the lead league.
Summary
While taking a flier on Bregman to lead MLB in RBIs and runs scored is somewhat intriguing, the best value as far as his futures odds appears to be winning AL MVP.
One reason is simply that he’s competing with just the American League as opposed to the entire MLB, and his well-rounded game for an elite team could make voters lean his way even if his hitting numbers aren’t quite up to the level of Judge and Trout.
At 45-to-1, we’ll take our chances.
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