Column: Are LSU’s midweek slip-ups enough for a new team to be crowned No. 1?

The week began just like any other week for LSU baseball. 

D1Baseball, USA Today and other ranking outlets selected LSU as the top team in the country for the 11th straight week, and who could really blame them?

Despite a rough mid-week loss to Louisiana-Lafayette, the Tigers effectively bounced back, sweeping the defending national champions in Ole Miss to resolidify themselves as the best team in baseball. 

But then time moved forward as it always does. With a chance to further redeem itself against Nicholls State on Tuesday night, LSU once again fell flat down the stretch. 

Midweeks aren’t end-all-be-all in college baseball, evident by the lack of influence last Tuesday’s loss had on its ranking. Everybody drops a midweek game from time-to-time, as underdog squads bring their best and top teams typically test their depth in matchups like this. 

However, dropping back-to-back midweek matchups is less excusable. It’s like how the old saying goes. 

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, I might not be No. 1. 

That might seem like an absurd statement considering what it has going for it. Whether it be the projected top-two MLB draft prospects it has in its lineup, the span of five straight weekends where it faced teams ranked No. 12 and above and came out without a series loss or the fact that it’s just one of five teams that sports a single-digit loss total despite playing in the SEC, it’s crystal clear that LSU is one of the best teams in the country. 

But that doesn’t mean its No. 1 spot is necessarily secure. 

For one, some of those SEC series wins have started to age like milk.  

Texas A&M and Tennessee rapidly dropped out of the rankings after LSU defeated them – though the Volunteers recently reemerged following their sweep of No. 5 Vanderbilt. No. 7 Arkansas has lost four in a row, suffering a series sweep at the hands of Georgia before being upset by Missouri State. And No. 15 Kentucky hasn’t won an SEC series in nearly a month and most recently got shut out by Louisville.

Those are still impressive wins, especially if Tennessee continues to progress upward and the others find a way to bounce back. But the more they drop in the rankings, the less impressive those wins look to ranking committees.

As mentioned earlier, there are four other teams that have yet to suffer 10 losses this season, two of which are in position to jump LSU. 

Those teams are No. 2 Wake Forest and No. 3 South Carolina. 

The Demon Deacons were the first team to surpass 35 wins in the nation and currently sport a win percentage of 85%. While their non-conference schedule holds a level of ease that trumps LSU’s, there are some impressive wins mixed within it. 

The team’s most recent win over No. 6 Coastal Carolina is a prime example. Though it lost a tight one to the Chanticleers in early March, it progressed to the point where their rematch ended in the seventh inning, with two RBIs granting Wake with a 10-run lead that finished the game.  

Outside of non-conference play, it holds a 16-4 record in the ACC, the second deepest conference in baseball. In terms of RPI, it has more teams in the top 25 than any other conference including the SEC with eight. The SEC still has two more teams that are actually ranked and six of the top-ten spots in RPI, but I’d say the ACC’s overall depth almost rivals the SEC’s. 

Despite that, the Demon Deacons have yet to drop a series and have swept three conference foes so far in No. 16 Miami, Clemson and NC State, all of which rank in the Top 25 in RPI. Its other series victories include ones over No. 20 Duke and No. 21 Louisville, teams that beat No. 9 Campbell and No. 15 Kentucky respectively on Tuesday. 

They’ve experienced this success behind a decent offense and arguably the best bullpen in the nation. Statistically, they lead the country in strikeouts, WHIP, strikeout-to-walk ratio, hits allowed per nine innings and ERA, the latter of which it holds a margin of 0.8 in. Its top four pitchers in terms of innings pitched have ERAs under 2.50, with reliever Seth Keener owning the second best in the country at 0.82. 

Not having a conference series this weekend hurts its upward momentum a bit, but that top-10 win on Tuesday combined with LSU’s loss certainly helps its chances of claiming No. 1. 

On the other hand, South Carolina is fresh off one of the most impressive series victories of the season, one in which it swept No. 4 Florida by a combined score of 25-11. While its SEC schedule started off easier than most, it adjusted seamlessly when it picked up difficult. 

In fact, its first series against one of the SEC’s juggernauts came against LSU, who it was two innings away from defeating in two games. Though the Gamecocks controlled things through the first 16 innings of the series, LSU ultimately won game two with five combined runs in the eighth and ninth innings. 

Game three never happened due to inclement weather and the Tigers haven’t faced a team of that status since. While we can only speculate on what would’ve occurred had that game been played, one thing was made abundantly clear: South Carolina proved to be on the same level as LSU. 

If South Carolina had beaten Vanderbilt the following week, we wouldn’t be having this discussion. But after winning game one 14-6 and going up 4-0 in the first inning of game two, the Commodores bounced back and ultimately took the series.

Even with its sweep over Florida, that lone series loss hurts its resume when compared to LSU’s to the point where I doubt it makes a jump without outperforming the Tigers this weekend.

While LSU has two more losses than the Gamecocks and its two most recent losses have been against teams that rank No. 75 and No. 141 in RPI respectively, the fact that it hasn’t dropped an SEC series is a considerable factor when determining who will be No. 1 next week. If the Tigers bounce back against Alabama, South Carolina likely won’t jump them. 

If anyone jumps them, it’ll likely be Wake Forest but I wouldn’t be surprised if it remains right where it is. It’s accomplished so much this season despite having to overcome a vast list of injuries and tough opponents, and has earned the top spot time and time again this season.

We’ll just have to wait and see.