Preview: LSU to face Florida in Game Three of the CWS Finals with everything on the line

It all comes down to this. Everything LSU has been through this season, all the highs and lows, comes down to Monday night. With a win, it’ll be national champions. With a loss, it’s not. 

LSU will face off with Florida one last time in this year’s College World Series Finals on Monday night at 6 p.m. C.T. at Charles Schwab Field in Omaha, Nebraska. The game will be aired at 6 p.m. C.T.

The biggest question amongst LSU fans heading into Monday’s game is this: Will Paul Skenes start on the mound, or will he pitch at all? Being that the game is a national championship, his odds of making an appearance increase tremendously. But fans shouldn’t rely on Skenes going for 120-plus pitches like he normally does. If he pitches at all.

There is a lot to consider when it comes to Skenes’ availability. Skenes pitched against Wake Forest on Thursday after just four days of rest. While this didn’t seem to be an issue for him, performing on short rest again may be a stretch. This time around, Skenes would be on three days of rest. This being said, Skenes would have made three outings over the span of 10 days. 

“You’re going on game eight in 10 days,” Jay Johnson said. “So we have to be mindful of all that, and we will be. And we’ll see who is available.”

The possibility of Skenes either coming out of the bullpen or starting the game on a pitch count is more likely in this scenario. But yet again, Monday’s game is a do all, end all for the Tigers, and doing everything they can might mean putting Skenes on the mound to throw everything he has at Florida.

But a more confident starting candidate for LSU is Thatcher Hurd. Hurd threw three scoreless innings against Wake Forest on Thursday, and he threw just 47 pitches. Hurd is also on three days of rest, but his significantly lower pitch count means he could have more in him.

Out of the bullpen, other than potentially Skenes, Griffin Herring and Riley Cooper are two available pitchers. After Nate Ackenhausen, a left-hander, came out against Florida on Sunday, LSU stuck with all right-handers, and that’s where Florida had most of its success.

Yes, Florida still hit Ackenhausen, but a righty-lefty mix from LSU may force the Gators to make quick adjustments.

However, Cooper was not at Sunday’s matchup. In fact, he didn’t leave his hotel room. He had a stomach bug on Sunday and will hope to be available on Monday. This means Herring may be more likely a choice out of the bullpen. Herring pitched on Wednesday against Wake Forest and impressed. He went 4.2 innings, struck out six, and gave up just three hits.

For Florida, Jac Caglianone is its most likely starter. Yes, the nation’s home-run leader also pitches, and he pitches well. In 73.1 innings pitched, he’s struck out 85 and holds a 3.68 ERA. In contrast from Florida’s other two starters, Brandon Sproat and Hurston Waldrep, Caglianone is a left-hander.

After Caglianone, Florida’s bullpen may be working on short rest. Both Cade Fisher and Brandon Neely pitched over 50 pitches on Saturday. But similar to the situation with Skenes, the Gators may be prepared to throw all it has at LSU. Blake Purnell is a possibility after throwing just 20 pitches on Sunday. Florida head coach, Kevin O’Sullivan, also said Ryan Slater would have been next if LSU started to come back on Sunday, so he will be available Monday.

But the game will be determined by which team can bring out the best in places they’ve been inconsistent with. For LSU, it has been timely hits, and for Florida, it’s been on the mound. 

LSU’s worst enemy is itself most of the time. On Saturday, the Tigers left 17 runners stranded on base. On Sunday, the team had five errors in the field. LSU has gotten by the skin of its teeth two times now despite its flaws, and much of that has to do with performances on the mound. But a Skenes or Floyd-like performance on Monday is not guaranteed, so the Tigers may have to win the game in other ways.

For Florida, its bats have bailed it out in many scenarios. Neither Sproat nor Waldrep went long in their starts or was very effective, but regardless, the Gators found a way to either win or make the game as close as it gets. 

Controlling its bats is the way to beat the Gators, but not many teams have been able to do that. From top to bottom, everyone in Florida’s lineup has contributed in this finals series, so the tall task of shutting the whole lineup down is indeed a tall task.

To say Monday’s matchup will be interesting is an understatement. Both teams have shown themselves at their best, and both have shown themselves at their worst. But for Monday, showing up with their best is a must for both teams. Because on Monday, everything is on the line.