Scott Rabalais: Jay Johnson’s decision to pitch Paul Skenes Friday has long-term impact

Scott Rabalais: Jay Johnson's decision to pitch Paul Skenes Friday has long-term impact
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As the weather delays Saturday afternoon in the NCAA Baton Rouge regional became a long day’s journey into night and the LSU game management staff emptied their catalog of rain-related songs to play over the P.A. system (“Waterloo” by ABBA?), the talk around Alex Box Stadium and out at the oak-tree shaded tailgate parties turned to the decision.

You know. The Decision. The choice by LSU coach Jay Johnson to pitch America’s ace, Paul Skenes, in the Tigers’ regional opener Friday against Tulane.

As he departed the postgame news conference after his team’s 7-2 victory, I followed Johnson out.

“You shocked a lot of people today,” I told Johnson.

“I know” Johnson replied. An eyebrow or two arched under his purple LSU cap.

Rutgers football coach Greg Schiano once famously and quite correctly said, “There are two things every man in America thinks he can do: work a grill and coach football.”

Make that a double play for baseball. Not only is baseball a game of skill, but it’s a game of strategy and cleverness, one in which one side is trying to outsmart the other on every single pitch. It’s also a game of virtually endless approaches to the same issue. Who doesn’t think their way is the best way, and that deep down they’re smarter than the average coach or manager?

Such is the case with Johnson’s decision to pitch Skenes in the regional opener.

LSU was widely expected to hold Skenes for Saturday’s scheduled game, the proverbial “marble game” of the regional. A game in which your team is either trying to win to stay alive in the double-elimination regional or win to take command, now having to lose twice to be eliminated.

Considering that LSU was playing 19-40 Tulane in the opener, the team with the most losses in NCAA tournament history, you didn’t expect Johnson would go knocking on fraternity house doors for a walk-on arm to start against the Green Wave, but that he’d pick someone down the line not named Skenes.

He did not. Johnson said he considered all the alternatives as he does “all the time.” That’s not bragging. He crushes, not crunches, numbers. He analyzes analytics. Whatever is the baseball version of a basketball gym rat, that’s what Johnson is. All us armchair managers out there are free to disagree with his decision to throw Skenes in the regional opener — myself included — but none of us should delude ourselves into thinking we know more about his business than he does. When Johnson said Friday that he watched video of every game Tulane played in its surprising run to the American Athletic Conference tournament title, you knew he wasn’t exaggerating in the slightest.

All that data told him to throw Skenes in the opener. Why? Johnson didn’t exactly say. Speaking of football coaches, Johnson brings a bit of their mentality to baseball, keeping some decisions close to the vest just because he has a vest to keep them close against. Seeking any edge he can get.

Perhaps it was the sudden, surprising threat of a Green Wave team that obviously found its best self in the AAC tourney in Clearwater, Florida. Perhaps it was the virtually sure win he believed Skenes could deliver.

Whatever the impetus, second guess upon second guess followed Skenes to the mound.

One win and 124 pitches later, Johnson was vindicated. No one expected Skenes to throw his first complete game of the season (his longest outing had been 7-1/3 innings at Auburn), especially in 90-plus degree, sun-baking heat. But Skenes, other than a two-run home run he served up to former Catholic High hitter Brennan Lambert, was more than up to the task. When he got Lambert to chop out to second to end the game, Skenes hit 101 mph on the radar gun.

Astounding.

Johnson said LSU managed Skenes’ pitching performances all season “for what was to come this week.” There are a lot of eyes on how Jay Johnson and pitching coach Wes Johnson are managing Skenes’ potentially nine-figure right arm, eyes belonging to other pitching prodigies and the people in their camps (parents, agents, accountants). Decisions LSU makes with Skenes in his one season with the Tigers will probably impact the pitchers LSU gets in the future.

Like he said, Johnson considers everything.

All that said, the pitching plan LSU has chosen to pursue became even more critical Saturday night. Saturday’s lengthy delay pushed the LSU-Oregon State game to 2 p.m. Sunday (weather permitting), with the winner moving on to what will now be a Monday regional final and the loser coming back to play Sunday night against the Tulane-Sam Houston survivor.

It’s even more critical for LSU that the Tigers stay in the winner’s bracket to conserve their Skenes-less pitching. Don’t even think for a minute that LSU would bring Skenes back to throw even one out of relief on Monday.

Before we go, hopefully to grab a little sleep before the regional ramps up again, I came across another Schiano quote that applies to the Johnson-Skenes debate:

“Good teams answer their questions as they go, but they do it with wins.”

We’re going to find out if LSU has enough wins to drown out all the second-guessers.

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About Marc Lemoine 2032 Articles
Marc is an Economist and a well experienced weightlifter who has won many championships. He intends to build a bright career in the media industry as well. He is a sports freak who loves to cover the latest news on sports, finance and economy.

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