Each day, one of our experts at bet.NOLA.com will offer up a best bet (or two or three) that mobile sportsbooks in Louisiana are offering. It might be a traditional spread bet, a player prop or one of the various odds boosts that books offer.
A reminder for those who haven’t signed up yet: New users can get a risk-free bet at Caesars Sportsbook, meaning that if your first bet loses, you get a bonus bet for the same amount up to $1,250. New users also get 1,000 Caesars Rewards points to redeem for hotel or casino credit.
Here are our best bets for Saturday, April 15:
TOP PLAY
The play: NBA: Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings UNDER 238.5
The odds/bet: -110 ($33 to win $30)
The book: Caesars Sportsbook
Time/TV: 7:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Our take: The Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings have the two highest-rated offenses in the entire NBA this season. The Kings sit atop the NBA in scoring offense, averaging an astonishing 120.7 points per game. The Warriors trail just behind in the same metric with 118.9 points per game.
It’d make sense to look at these numbers and justify taking the over in this contest. 120.7 plus 118.9 equals 239.6, which is greater than 238.5. However, 238.5 total points is a lot in the playoffs — even for the two best scoring teams in the association.
These two in-state foes have met four times this season. While the scoring numbers have been high in each (130-125, 116-113, 122-115, 119-97), they’ve only combined to go over the total for Game 1 once, on October 23. The last three meetings have tallied totals under 238.5 and I believe that trend will continue this evening.
Factor in the reality that this is the first time Sacramento is playing in a playoff game since 2005/06 and there are bound to be some nerves in the young home locker room. This game will be a shootout — make no mistake about it — 238.5 is just too many points to not like the under.
GOALS GALORE IN MANCHESTER
The play: English Premier League: Manchester City to win, both teams to score
The odds/bet: +150 ($6.67 to win $10)
The book: Caesars Sportsbook
Time/TV: 11:30 a.m. (USA Network)
Our take: The new manager bounce is legitimate and I think it’ll inspire Leicester City this morning. I wholeheartedly believe the Foxes will play much better than they have for most of this season under Brendan Rodgers with Dean Smith now in the away dugout.
After all, Leicester City is a wildly talented bunch, it’s just not nearly as good as Manchester City. The Citizens should put this match away by halftime in front of an Etihad crowd eager for their side to pull within three points of Arsenal atop the table.
I still believe Smith will inspire the Foxes enough to find the back of the net at least once, no matter how many times they concede. This is a fixture that’s seen both teams score in 15 of their last 25 meetings.
Furthermore, Manchester City has failed to keep a clean sheet in its last two league matches. The Citizens have kept just 10 clean sheets in 29 league games this season, and while that tally is very good, it’s not what Pep Guardiola will have wanted up until this point.
The Foxes are also a much better attacking side than their league position (19th) indicates. They’ve scored the 10th most goals in the English top flight this season (40) and they have some proven goalscorers in their ranks.
There is no value in picking Manchester City to win outright (-700), so I’m going to side with the Citizens and back both teams to score for some plus juice (+150) to start my Saturday morning off right.
HOW WE’VE FARED
NBA: Timberwolves -5.5 over Thunder (WON $30)
NBA: Under 208.5 in Bulls-Heat (WON $10)
Friday’s profit/loss: $40 (2-0)
Total for the week: -$85.30 (4-5, 1 pending)
Total for April: -$242.70 (11-16, 1 pending)
Total for 2023: -$276.80 (76-86, 1 pending)
NOTE: If a line or odds are minus, it considers the juice one must lay to place the bet. Ex: Team A is -160 on the money line, one would have to bet $160 to win $100 (or $16 to win $10). OR Team B is a 5-point favorite at -110, one would have to bet $110 to win $100 (or $11 to win $10.)
Conversely, on positive lines, if Team C is +140 on the money line, $100 would bring in $140 (or $10 to win $14).
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