Is the time right for Ron DeSantis to run for president?
Potential candidates calculate odds, take polls and count dollars to determine whether they should run. But it’s often not an easy decision; timing is the biggest conundrum in politics.
The Florida governor once seemed to have a glide path to the 2024 GOP nomination. His strong popularity among Republicans nationwide, together with his big reelection win as Donald Trump flubbed the midterm elections, put DeSantis in the driver’s seat. But now that the presidential nomination is hitched to the wild uncertainties of indictments and criminal trials, some DeSantis supporters are questioning whether their man should enter the fray.
If DeSantis runs now, they fear, he risks a yearlong bloodbath with Trump, from which he may never recover. Moreover, DeSantis may not be able to beat Trump, especially since the New York indictment has fired up the MAGA base.
The DeSantis sizzle had already started to dissipate with his ill-advised statement that the Ukraine-Russia war is a “territorial dispute” in which the U.S. has no vital interest. GOP pundits increasingly worry about his readiness for the brutal scrutiny of a national campaign. There is also unease about his personal appeal.
Polling, too, has set off alarms. Eight national surveys of Republican primary voters conducted during February had Trump leading DeSantis by an average of 15 points. Three polls taken right after the New York indictment show Trump gaining strength, leading DeSantis by an average of 32 points.
The next presidential election may well turn on what prosecutors, judges and jurors do, not what politicians do. If the New York case is dismissed before trial, that could lock up Trump’s nomination. Even if the case goes to trial and Trump is acquitted, it could secure his nomination. “Vindicated again!” will be the MAGA rallying cry.
On the other hand, there are good reasons why DeSantis should run now.
History tells us that presidential prospects need to strike while the iron is hot. Going into the 1960 and 2008 elections, top Democrats thought young John Kennedy and Barack Obama should have waited another four years to run for president. Neither listened to that advice. They ran and won.
Another example: Republican Chris Christie was riding high during his first term as governor of New Jersey. His blunt talk was winning rave reviews and his policies were exciting conservatives. GOP leaders and major donors believed he had a better chance to beat Obama for reelection than did Mitt Romney. Despite their pleas, Christie decided not to seek the 2012 nomination. He expected his momentum to last another four years. But when he ran in 2016, he bombed, won no delegates and dropped out of the race.
Despite recent troubles, DeSantis remains popular among Republicans: He rated 73% favorable/13% unfavorable in the latest Economist/YouGov survey. If he waits four years, that popularity could fade. Furthermore, Trump could still be an obstacle, even if he’s not president or a candidate. DeSantis could also be upended by a new crop of Republican contenders, some of whom we don’t presently know.
Another reason DeSantis should run: He may be needed to save his party from a Trump catastrophe, especially if the former president faces additional indictments involving election interference, illegal handling of classified documents, the Jan. 6. 2021 riot and corporate fraud. DeSantis is currently better positioned than any Republican to win both the nomination and general election should Trump’s candidacy sink under the weight of his legal troubles.
Once initial emotions stirred by the New York indictment calm down, Republicans may start to understand that these new controversies will make it even harder for Trump to beat a Democrat in the general election. That realization could help DeSantis, or some other Republican, win the nomination. Most national polls have shown DeSantis leading, and Trump trailing, Joe Biden.
What should Ron DeSantis do? Throw caution to the wind and run? Or play it safe and risk missing the boat? For the tightly wound DeSantis, this may be a hard call. But if his underdog gubernatorial race in 2018 tells us anything, he’ll take the chance and run. After all, it’s the only way to win.
Ron Faucheux is a nonpartisan political analyst, pollster and writer based in Louisiana.
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