On Friday in Dallas, LSU fell behind Virginia Tech by 12 points in the third quarter but stormed back to win 79-72. Then Iowa superstar Caitlin Clark dazzled a sell-out crowd with another 40-point performance, en route to a shocking upset of South Carolina.
Now the two teams will meet at 2:30 p.m. Sunday in both teams’ first appearance in an NCAA championship game. The Hawkeyes are 3.5-point favorite over LSU. If that line holds, it’ll be LSU’s first time as an underdog this tournament.
Here’s a look at Iowa and LSU, newcomers to college basketball’s grandest stage.
Big Picture for Iowa
For Iowa, Caitlin Clark is the sun, moon and stars. Per Basketball Reference, her 36.9 career usage rate is the third-highest ever. She scored 41 points on 15-of-31 shooting against South Carolina, with eight assists and six rebounds, becoming the first player ever to score 40 points in consecutive NCAA women’s tournament games. In the fourth quarter, she scored or assisted on all 18 of the Hawkeyes’ points. And she didn’t even shoot it well from 3-point land. If Clark shoots even a little more efficiently from downtown — better than her 5-of-17 clip Friday — LSU likely will play from behind.
X-Factor for Iowa
LSU shouldn’t neglect Iowa’s second-leading scorer Monika Czinano, a 6-foot-3 center who scores 17.2 points per game and makes 68% of her shots, the third-best mark in the country. Most of her buckets come from high screen-and-rolls with Clark. On those plays, an extra defender usually floats to Clark, which leaves Czinano open for a pocket pass on a dive to the rim. Four of Iowa’s six losses have come when Czinano scores fewer than 17 points, which means that the Hawkeyes need some extra scoring to complement Clark. Against South Carolina, she chipped in 18 points on 6-of-8 shooting, just enough to put Iowa over the edge.
Big Picture for LSU
Once again, LSU won with defense and rebounding. Alexis Morris did good work defending Virginia Tech star point guard Georgia Amoore, who shot only 4 of 17 from the field and 4 of 15 from beyond the arc. And LaDazhia Williams held Elizabeth Kitley in check. The 6-foot-6 center scored 18 points and grabbed 12 rebounds, but after halftime, she scored only six points with four rebounds. Virginia Tech actually outrebounded LSU by 11 in the first half. But in the second half, LSU outrebounded the Hokies by nine. It was a key reason why the Tigers held Virginia Tech to only 13 fourth-quarter points.
X-Factor for LSU
Without a doubt, it’s LSU’s shooting. Iowa coach Lisa Bluder said Saturday that her team likely will adopt a different defensive strategy than the one it deployed against South Carolina, where the Hawkeyes packed the paint and sagged far off the Gamecocks’ perimeter players. Bluder seems more concerned about LSU’s shooting ability. But the Tigers are still shooting only 19.7% from 3-point range in the tournament, a far cry from their season rate of 34.5%. If they continue to struggle, Iowa may pack their defense, which will once again make life hard down low for Angle Reese and Williams.
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