It didn’t take long for sportsbooks to react to the media reports Monday morning that free agent quarterback Derek Carr is signing with the New Orleans Saints.
Caesars Sportsbook now lists the Saints as a +130 favorite to win the wide-open NFC South; New Orleans was +210 in the market earlier in the morning.
That represents a 33% increase in implied probability, giving the Saints an implied 43.5% chance to win the division after adding Carr.
None of the other teams in the NFC South have an established quarterback, and none finished with a winning record last season, giving the signing perhaps even more importance than usual.
Their Super Bowl odds have also improved, going from +5000 to +3000 at Caesars, official odds partner of Bet.NOLA.com, in the wake of the reported signing. The Saints’ odds to win the NFC have improved from +2200 to +1400.
Interestingly, however, Carr’s odds to win NFL MVP dropped, from 50-to-1 last week to 60-to-1 now that he appears to be headed to the Saints.
Multiple media reports said Carr and the Saints had agreed to a four-year contract. Carr is the Raiders’ franchise leader in passing yards and passing touchdowns and is a four-time Pro Bowler, but Las Vegas released him last month.
Carr passed for 3,522 yards last season with 24 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. For his career, he has 35,222 yards passing, 217 touchdowns and 99 interceptions. He finished third in the MVP voting in 2016 but also has never won a playoff game (though he was injured and unable to play in the postseason for his best Raiders team, that 2016 edition).
Carr had been courted by multiple teams, including the New York Jets and Carolina Panthers. But the Saints got the deal done, and now their odds of making noise next season have gone way up.
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