Unemployment decreased slightly in March.
Unemployment dropped to 3.5% in March from 3.6% a year ago, remaining at historic lows despite recessionary fears.
S&P and VIX suggest the banking crisis is contained.
Despite recent bank failures, the S&P has risen 6.1%, and the VIX has remained low, decreasing 17.7% year to date.
Hotel wage growth remains elevated.
While Y-o-Y hotel wage growth slowed in March to 5.7% from 6.4% in February, the 6.3% Y-o-Y growth in hospitality employment and 23 FTE openings per hotel suggest pressures are likely to continue.
RevPAR rose 8.9% in March and 15.5% in Q1 2023.
RevPAR rose 8.9% in March, but growth was down from January (+26.8%) and February (+14.8%) as a result of more difficult post-Omicron comparisons.
Google search trends have fully recovered to 2019 levels.
Brand searches were up 4% Y-o-Y in April, while searches for brand loyalty programs rose 9% since April 2022, suggesting healthy summer travel.
Real consumer credit is below pre-pandemic levels.
Contrary to the popular narrative, real revolving consumer credit remains below pre-pandemic levels representing 6.5% of real personal disposable income.
Inbound travelers from Japan and China are moving the needle.
Inbound visitation from China and Japan reached 34% of 2019 in March. Overall, international visitation reached 75% of 2019.
Q1 group and business demand share steadily improved.
Group and business (GDS) demand share reached 98% and 95% of 2019 levels, respectively, in Q1.
Easy Omicron comparisons spur GOP dollar growth.
GOP dollar growth increased 23.5% on a year-over-year basis in February, but we expect growth to moderate to the low single digits as comparisons normalize.
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