College basketball predictions: Bet on South Florida to win the American Athletic

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When the 2023/24 season began, many figured the American Athletic Conference would be run by a surprise Final Four team from last season, Florida Atlantic. After the Owls jumped out to a 10-2 start with a win over No. 4 Arizona, these suspicions looked to be confirmed. However, as the calendar turns over into March, it’s another Florida school that sits atop the standings.

The South Florida Bulls are quite possibly the hottest team in the country at the moment. They’ve won 13 consecutive games, including wins over ranked teams in Florida Atlantic and Memphis. This has earned South Florida a spot in the AP Top 25 for the first time in program history as it sits at 21-5 overall.

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Despite this fantastic start, the Bulls have the joint-third best odds to win the American Athletic Conference Tournament, behind FAU and SMU. South Florida has +600 odds to win its conference for the first time since winning the Sun Belt in 1990. The Bulls have already won the regular season title, so are they worth betting on to win the tournament too?

You wouldn’t be blamed for being a bit apprehensive of South Florida. After all, the Bulls have been horrendous throughout their program’s history. They’ve posted just four winning seasons in the last 20 years and made just three appearances in the NCAA Tournament since 1973. However, Amir Abdur-Rahim has his team rolling in his first year on campus.

South Florida started the season 3-4 with losses to Central Michigan, Maine, Hofstra and Massachusetts. What have the Bulls done since the embarrassing defeat to the Minute Men? They’ve gone 18-1, earned multiple ranked wins and catapulted themselves to the top of the AAC standings.

While KenPom may not love South Florida — who is ranked 93rd in the country in adjusted efficiency margin — it’s hard to beat the value at 6/1 that the Bulls have to win the conference tournament as the regular season champion. They will face stiff competition from the four teams (FAU, SMU, Memphis and North Texas) sitting above them in the aforementioned rankings. However, South Florida is 3-0 against those teams this season having not played the Mustangs.

The nation’s hottest team takes its 13-game win streak into a pivotal clash with Charlotte this afternoon.

The American Athletic Conference Tournament begins on Wednesday, March 13 at noon from Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas. It runs through March 17 with all games being broadcast on ESPN+ or the ESPN family of networks.

Here are the odds to win the American Athletic Conference Tournament from FanDuel Sportsbook as of Friday, March 1, 2024: