Here’s the current handicapping on the Republican presidential race: Donald Trump dominates the field, to be sure, but many Republican voters remain queasy about his ability to win the general election. That, more than anything, keeps alive the prospects of Republicans running against him.
While Trump beats Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in early nomination polls by huge margins, his lead is not insurmountable given the potential volatility of a race that still has a year to run. Before the New York indictment, Trump was leading the Florida governor by an average of 19 points. After the indictment, his lead expanded to 33 points; now it’s 28 points. Nobody knows what happens if new indictments come or if other events shift the playing field.
DeSantis, who played varsity baseball at Yale, is in a slump. It started with his clumsy remarks about the Ukraine-Russia war and continued with media coverage of how his personal remoteness dampens enthusiasm among donors and politicians. DeSantis has skillfully pressed anti-woke hot buttons, but getting to the right of Trump is moving him into risky territory. His past views on tightening Social Security and Medicare benefits, featured in attack ads, aren’t helping.
Then there is Disney, which pours $75 billion annually into the Florida economy and employs 75,000 people in the state. DeSantis’ attack on the company for opposing his bill limiting classroom discussion of gender issues in early grades appeals to conservatives as a matter of social policy. But his threats to Disney’s business operations——locating a state prison next to Disney World is just one of them — have troubled some. DeSantis’ actions are reminiscent of Huey Long, the power-wielding former Louisiana governor who used heavy-handed tactics to get his way.
Despite his current failure to meet expectations as an unannounced candidate, DeSantis remains in the game. The Wall Street Journal poll has him beating Joe Biden by three points, while Trump is losing to Biden by three points.
Though DeSantis trails Trump among Republicans by wide margins, The Wall Street Journal poll finds that 83% of GOP voters would still consider voting for him. That compares to 82% who would consider voting for Trump. The NBC News poll also shows that, while Trump leads DeSantis by 15 points among first-choice votes, DeSantis leads Trump by 13 points among second-choice votes; that could matter if Trump sheds support along the way.
Mike Pence runs third in most surveys. Though third place doesn’t seem so bad in a potentially crowded field, Pence’s average vote is only 5% — not good for a former vice president. Additionally, The Wall Street Journal poll shows Pence isn’t selling among general election voters; his favorable rating is just 29% and his unfavorable rating is a whopping 60%. That’s worse than negative ratings for Vice President Kamala Harris (58%), Trump (57%) and Biden (57%).
Pence catches it from both ends: MAGA activists are sore at him for not attempting to overturn the 2020 election; Democrats object to his staunch social conservatism.
Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor and U.N. ambassador, runs slightly below Pence, with about 4% of the vote. If Trump and DeSantis badly damage one another, or if DeSantis drops out, Haley could become viable.
Vivek Ramaswamy, a wealthy 37-year-old entrepreneur and asset manager, is increasingly gaining attention. His anti-woke writings and media appearances are impressing Republicans who’d like a new face. He’s polling below Haley, but not by much.
Tim Scott, the South Carolina senator, is drawing an average of 2% in the polls. While he has strong personal appeal and hopes to be a unifying option for party voters, his best shot may be the VP nod.
Other prospects are in the dreaded 1% Club — they’re smart, capable politicians who haven’t risen much above 1% in the polls. They include Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu and former governors Chris Christie of New Jersey and Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas. Each could spice up the race by raising interesting issues, landing hard punches or maybe even catching fire. Arguably, Youngkin would be the GOP’s strongest candidate against Biden.
Beware. More to come. The kaleidoscope is always ready to turn.
Ron Faucheux is a nonpartisan political analyst, pollster and writer based in Louisiana. He publishes LunchtimePolitics.com, a nationwide newsletter on polls and public opinion.
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